Davos 10/15km Preview

The penultimate weekend before the Christmas break sees the World Cup go to its annual December stop of Davos, Switzerland. Davos has been a staple on the World Cup schedule for many years. The first 15km for the men was run before I was even born, back in 1982. It was won by the great Norwegian Pål Gunnar Mikkelsplass. On the ladies side, it was the Norwegian Berit Aunli to take the first 10km victory in 1984. More recently, it was Russian Irina Khazova and Finn Matti Heikkinen to take the victories last year.

Heavy snowfall over the past 24 hours has meant that the 25 athletes with the highest FIS point will start last as oppose to the red group. So make sure you get up early if you plan on watching the races.

The high altitude stop sees the likes of Bjørgen and Kowalczyk return to regain their dominance on the races. Saarinen is also back from her shoulder injury which kept her out of the first three World Cup weekends, but I think we will not see the best from the Finn for at least one more week until she gets back into the rhythm.

The women who are absent are Sweden’s two strongest skiers in Haag and Kalla as well as Skofterud who will sit out. By opting out of the sprint on the Rhine, I cannot see Bjørgen and Kowalczyk being left off the podium as they will be slightly fresher than those that raced in Germany.

The bookies have Bjørgen (1.70), Kowalczyk (2.25), and Saarinen (10.00) for the podium.

PREDICTION
1. Marit Bjørgen (1.70)
2. Justyna Kowalczyk (2.25)
3. Petra Majdic (26.00)

Notable absentees include Teichmann and Filbrich who sit out due to illness. Vittoz will also be missing for a while yet as he continues to rehab after his thigh injury in Gällivare. Johan Olsson is also out due to sickness.

Obviously, the media’s attention will also be on Northug as this is his first race on the circuit this year after a bout of sickness and overtraining just before the season started. The odds+makers and I seem to have a mutual understanding as they have him as the eighth favourite at 21.00. However, I’ll be keeping my eye on another Norwegian; Hjelmeset. After being left off the National team, he has earned a spot in Davos after his win in Meråker last weekend. I think either him or Sundby will be the top Norwegian. It has been well documented this week that the Norwegian team tends to wilt in the thin air of Davos which is why I cannot see any of them in the top five.

Alexander Legkov showed incredible form in pursuit in Kuusamo as he dismantled the field. He has already been in Davos for two weeks, so acclimatization is not an issue for the Russian. However, Legkov isn’t the only one in great form right now. The performance of Cologna two weeks ago in the 15km classic in Kuusamo was equally impressive and he has home snow advantage. I think this will be the extra motivation to put him top dog tomorrow.

Even though Bauer had a rough start in Kuusamo, he did have the fastest time in the pursuit even though he finished ninth. With a smaller frame compared to many athletes, this should be an advantage as he pulls his body up the hills in the thin air.

The North American presence is strong with Freeman hoping to continue his good run of form as he is joined by the Canadians from Kuusamo minus Harvey who went back home for exams in university. I expect Freeman to be well within the top 15 tomorrow.

The bookies have Cologna (2.75), Bauer (5.00), and Rickardsson (7.00) for the podium.

PREDICTION
1. Dario Cologna (2.75)
2. Alexander Legkov (10.00)
3. Lukas Bauer (5.00)

As always, beta testing continues on WhoWins over at WorldofXC. At the time of writing, there was a massive 90 predictions already! So if you don’t have your picks in yet, you still have until the first starter tomorrow.

Til tomorrow.